Tranmere 0-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Colchester at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tranmere vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prenton Park plays host to Tranmere versus Colchester in League Two (matchday 42). Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Tranmere (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Tranmere have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Colchester have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Colchester have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Colchester are 0.50 PPG clear of Tranmere over their recent games (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Colchester edge it 4 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Tranmere 1–1 Colchester — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Tranmere goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Colchester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 52% versus Colchester 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 49% | Colchester 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tranmere surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Colchester have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 0.91 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.751 / defence 1.369 | Colchester attack 0.818 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Tranmere's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Tranmere's defence rating of 1.369 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Colchester's projected output up. Data: built from Tranmere's last 86 games and Colchester's last 86.
Result probabilities: Tranmere 26% | Draw 28% | Colchester 46%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 3.86 | Draw 3.53 | Colchester 2.19. Colchester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colchester as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colchester if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tranmere's last 10 home games and Colchester's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tranmere 30% (last 10 home games) | Colchester 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, matchday 42 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 26% | Draw 28% | Colchester 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Tranmere 0.91 / Colchester 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 0.751 / def 1.369 | Colchester attack 0.818 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Colchester (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Colchester xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tranmere vs Colchester FAQs
What time does Tranmere vs Colchester kick off?
Tranmere vs Colchester kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Colchester?
Tranmere 0 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Tranmere vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Colchester part of?
Tranmere vs Colchester is a League Two fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 26% chance of winning, Colchester a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Tranmere and Colchester will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Tranmere vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tranmere's attack rating (0.75) and Colchester's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Colchester's attack (0.82x) against Tranmere's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Tranmere's last 86 games and Colchester's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
26%
3.86
28%
3.53
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.21
1.30
Colchester xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tranmere vs Colchester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Tranmere and 1.30 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tranmere come into this having played 86 games, going 21W 24D 41L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Colchester sit at 1.41 PPG from 86 outings (30W 31D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.01 PPG for Tranmere against 1.41 for Colchester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Tranmere's home form reads 12W 14D 17L across their last 43 home games, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Colchester have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 43 away games (12W 17D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tranmere are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.21 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
Tranmere (Home) vs Colchester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tranmere
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Tranmere vs Colchester Form FAQs
What form are Tranmere and Colchester in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 21W 24D 41L in their last 86 games (1.01 PPG), while Colchester have gone 30W 31D 25L in their last 86 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Colchester away?
Colchester's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.16 PPG; Colchester away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Tranmere or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Colchester in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colchester won Colchester 3-0 Tranmere on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tranmere have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Colchester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tranmere
3
Draws
5
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Tranmere vs Colchester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Colchester?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tranmere have won 2, Colchester have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Colchester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Tranmere 0-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Colchester?
Colchester have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 46%, Colchester 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Tranmere and 33% for Colchester.
On the defensive side: Colchester in 30%; Tranmere have failed to score in 35% of games; Colchester in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tranmere vs Colchester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tranmere and Colchester matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Tranmere's recent matches and 51% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tranmere and Colchester matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Tranmere's recent games and 33% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Colchester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Tranmere's recent matches and 60% of Colchester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Tranmere 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Tranmere 0-1 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 0.91 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tranmere fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.75 / defence 1.37 against Colchester attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 26% | Draw 28% | Colchester 46%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 49%, Colchester 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colchester's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.01 PPG, Colchester 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 42
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →