Swindon Town 1-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swindon Town face Fleetwood Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Swindon Town welcome Fleetwood Town to County Ground in League Two (matchday 40). Kick-off is Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Swindon Town have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swindon Town at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fleetwood Town — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Fleetwood Town have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Swindon Town 1.70 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Swindon Town have won 2, Fleetwood Town 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Nov 2025, ended Swindon Town 1–1 Fleetwood Town — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 58% versus Fleetwood Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 58% | Fleetwood Town 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.18 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.161 / defence 0.960 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.817 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.192. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 85 games and Fleetwood Town's last 85.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 41% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.42 | Draw 3.38 | Fleetwood Town 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Fleetwood Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 40 | Venue: County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 41% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Swindon Town 1.18 / Fleetwood Town 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.161 / def 0.960 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.817 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fleetwood Town xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 March 2026 at County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Swindon Town 1 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 41% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swindon Town's attack at 1.16x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 85 games and Fleetwood Town's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.38
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.11
0.94
Fleetwood Town xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.94 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town come into this having played 85 games, going 36W 23D 26L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.34 PPG from 85 outings (29W 27D 29L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.54 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swindon Town's home form reads 19W 12D 11L across their last 42 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 42 away games (14W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.27 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 36W 23D 26L in their last 85 games (1.54 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 29W 27D 29L in their last 85 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.64 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2025, when Swindon Town won Fleetwood Town 0-4 Swindon Town.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Swindon Town
2
Draws
0
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Swindon Town 1-1 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 57%, Fleetwood Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Swindon Town) and 50% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fleetwood Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 52% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Swindon Town's recent games and 50% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 69% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town finished level at 1-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.18 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.94 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 41% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 29%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Fleetwood Town 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.54 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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