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Poisson rates Oldham at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Oldham encounter.

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Full Analysis

Alexandra Stadium plays host to Crewe versus Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Crewe (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Crewe's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Alexandra Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Oldham's overall League Two record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Oldham away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Oldham are 0.90 PPG clear of Crewe in recent League Two fixtures (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Crewe 0W, Oldham 0W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Oldham half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 58% versus Oldham 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 53% | Oldham 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.15 xG and Oldham 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.048 / defence 1.086 | Oldham attack 1.081 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.192. Data: 85 Crewe games / 38 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crewe 31% | Draw 26% | Oldham 43%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Oldham 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oldham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 60% | Oldham 40%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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