Swindon Town 6-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Crawley Town travel to The County Ground to take on Swindon Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swindon Town stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Swindon Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swindon Town have posted 3W 2D 5L at The County Ground — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Swindon Town 1.50 PPG, Crawley Town 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Swindon Town, 2 for Crawley Town and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Swindon Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swindon Town trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 55% versus Crawley Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 51% | Crawley Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.024 / defence 1.093 | Crawley Town attack 0.893 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.202. Data: 49 Swindon Town games / 50 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 45% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 3.45. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swindon Town as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swindon Town 40% | Crawley Town 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 45% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Swindon Town 1.52 / Crawley Town 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.024 / def 1.093 | Crawley Town attack 0.893 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Crawley Town xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Swindon Town 6 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 45% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Swindon Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Swindon Town 1W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Swindon Town and Crawley Town in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (1.02) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.84
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.69
1.17
Crawley Town xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
6%
15.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.17 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 17W 15D 17L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Swindon Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 22L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.35 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 2W 7D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swindon Town are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.06 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.43 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swindon Town and Crawley Town runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Swindon Town won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Swindon Town
2
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 3, Crawley Town have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-2 Swindon Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 48%, Crawley Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Swindon Town) and 52% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Swindon Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Crawley Town in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 52% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Swindon Town's recent games and 52% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swindon Town run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Crawley Town 6-0 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 1.17 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 45% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 29%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 51%, Crawley Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.35 PPG, Crawley Town 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.