Swindon Town 6-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swindon Town face Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Crawley Town travel to The County Ground to take on Swindon Town in League Two (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Swindon Town stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Swindon Town have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Crawley Town — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Crawley Town have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Swindon Town 1.50 PPG, Crawley Town 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Swindon Town, 2 for Crawley Town and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended Swindon Town 2–1 Crawley Town — a Swindon Town win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swindon Town trading profile (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 55% versus Crawley Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 51% | Crawley Town 49%). Note also that Crawley Town surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Swindon Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.024 / defence 1.093 | Crawley Town attack 0.893 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.202. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 49 games and Crawley Town's last 50.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 45% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.23 | Draw 3.84 | Crawley Town 3.44. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swindon Town as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 5 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 45% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Swindon Town 1.52 / Crawley Town 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.024 / def 1.093 | Crawley Town attack 0.893 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Crawley Town xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Swindon Town 6 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 5) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 45% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Swindon Town and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swindon Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (1.02) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 49 games and Crawley Town's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.84
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.69
1.17
Crawley Town xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
6%
15.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.17 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 17W 15D 17L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 22L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.35 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 9W 6D 8L from their last 23 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 2W 7D 14L across their last 23 away games, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swindon Town are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.06 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.43 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Swindon Town won Swindon Town 6-0 Crawley Town.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Swindon Town
2
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crawley Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 3, Crawley Town have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Crawley Town 2-2 Swindon Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 48%, Crawley Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Swindon Town) and 52% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Swindon Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Crawley Town in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 52% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swindon Town and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Swindon Town's recent games and 52% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 70% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swindon Town run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Crawley Town 6-0 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 1.17 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 45% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 29%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 51%, Crawley Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.35 PPG, Crawley Town 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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