Bradford 1-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
University of Bradford Stadium plays host to Bradford versus Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bradford have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bradford at University of Bradford Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bradford are significantly better at University of Bradford Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crewe's overall League Two record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crewe have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crewe have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bradford 0W, Crewe 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Crewe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Crewe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 48% versus Crewe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Crewe 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.75 xG and Crewe 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.119 / defence 0.979 | Crewe attack 0.987 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.202. Data: 50 Bradford games / 50 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 51% | Draw 24% | Crewe 25%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Crewe 4.00. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 60% | Crewe 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 51% | Draw 24% | Crewe 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Bradford 1.75 / Crewe 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.119 / def 0.979 | Crewe attack 0.987 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Bradford (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Crewe xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Crewe kick off?
Bradford vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Crewe?
Bradford 1 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Bradford vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Crewe part of?
Bradford vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 51% chance of winning, Crewe a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bradford and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Crewe?
Record (2 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 1 | Crewe 1W.
What form are Bradford and Crewe in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Crewe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bradford's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.99x) against Bradford's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.15
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.91
1.16
Crewe xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
4%
22.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bradford and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bradford and 1.16 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bradford come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 16D 12L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.28 PPG from 50 outings (15W 19D 16L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crewe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Bradford against 1.28 for Crewe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bradford's home form reads 11W 9D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (3W 11D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crewe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bradford are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.16 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Early Season
Crewe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Crewe in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 22W 16D 12L in their last 50 games (1.64 PPG), while Crewe have gone 15W 19D 16L in their last 50 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Crewe away?
Bradford's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.75 PPG; Crewe away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bradford or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Crewe in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crewe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bradford
2
Draws
2
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Crewe?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Crewe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Bradford 2-0 Crewe.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 58%, Crewe 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bradford) and 42% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crewe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bradford's recent matches and 42% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bradford's recent games and 42% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Crewe tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Crewe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Crewe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Crewe 1-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.75 xG and Crewe 1.16 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crewe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Crewe attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 51% | Draw 24% | Crewe 25%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Crewe 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crewe's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.64 PPG, Crewe 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.