Crawley Town 0-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Gillingham at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 5W 5D 0L at Broadfield Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Broadfield Stadium.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 2.00 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 0, Gillingham 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Gillingham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Gillingham 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crawley Town 49% | Gillingham 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.95 xG and Gillingham 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.975 / defence 0.853 | Gillingham attack 0.955 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.090. Gillingham's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Crawley Town games / 49 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 35% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 32%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Gillingham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 35% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Crawley Town 0.95 / Gillingham 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.975 / def 0.853 | Gillingham attack 0.955 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gillingham xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Gillingham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Gillingham part of?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 35% chance of winning, Gillingham a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Crawley Town and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Gillingham?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Gillingham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Gillingham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.01
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
1.84
0.89
Gillingham xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 14.1 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.89 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 13W 14D 22L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gillingham's form line: 17W 13D 19L from 49 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.08 PPG, Gillingham on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 5W 8D 12L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham in 29%.
Defensively: Gillingham in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Gillingham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.60 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Gillingham in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Gillingham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Gillingham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Gillingham 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crawley Town) and 24% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gillingham in 36%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 28% of games; Gillingham in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 28% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Crawley Town's recent games and 24% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Gillingham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Crawley Town 0-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.95 xG and Gillingham 0.89 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Gillingham attack 0.95 / defence 0.70, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 35% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 32%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gillingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 49%, Gillingham 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gillingham's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.08 PPG, Gillingham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.