Stockport County 1-1 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Hartlepool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Hartlepool in League Two, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stockport County have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 5W 5D 0L from 10 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Hartlepool (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hartlepool's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Stockport County's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Hartlepool and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2022, ended 5–0 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Hartlepool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 44% versus Hartlepool 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 40% | Hartlepool 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.59 xG and Hartlepool 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.036 / defence 0.730 | Hartlepool attack 1.009 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.084. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Stockport County games / 91 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 55% | Draw 27% | Hartlepool 18%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Hartlepool 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 40% | Hartlepool 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 55% | Draw 27% | Hartlepool 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Stockport County 1.59 / Hartlepool 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.036 / def 0.730 | Hartlepool attack 1.009 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Hartlepool xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Hartlepool kick off?
Stockport County vs Hartlepool kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Hartlepool?
Stockport County 1 - 1 Hartlepool.
Where is Stockport County vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Hartlepool part of?
Stockport County vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 55% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Stockport County and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Hartlepool?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Hartlepool 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Hartlepool in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Hartlepool (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.04) and Hartlepool's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hartlepool's attack (1.01x) against Stockport County's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 45/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.66
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.38
0.80
Hartlepool xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
4%
27.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.80 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Hartlepool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stockport County come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 12D 11L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Hartlepool sit at 0.93 PPG from 45 outings (9W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Hartlepool — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stockport County's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Hartlepool have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.13 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hartlepool in 62%.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Hartlepool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 22W 12D 11L in their last 45 games (1.73 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 9W 15D 21L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Hartlepool away?
Stockport County's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.86 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stockport County
1
Draws
0
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Hartlepool?
From 2 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Hartlepool have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Stockport County 1-1 Hartlepool.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Hartlepool?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 41%, Hartlepool 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stockport County) and 54% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Hartlepool in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stockport County's recent matches and 59% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stockport County's recent games and 54% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County and Hartlepool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Hartlepool finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.59 xG and Hartlepool 0.80 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.04 / defence 0.73 against Hartlepool attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 55% | Draw 27% | Hartlepool 18%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 40%, Hartlepool 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Hartlepool's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hartlepool (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.