Swindon Town 2-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 46 sees Crawley Town travel to The County Ground to take on Swindon Town. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 May 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swindon Town stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swindon Town have posted 3W 2D 5L at The County Ground — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Crawley Town are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Swindon Town's 30% rate and Crawley Town's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Swindon Town, 2 for Crawley Town and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Crawley Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swindon Town trading profile (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 57% versus Crawley Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 55% | Crawley Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.57 xG and Crawley Town 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 0.955 / defence 1.083 | Crawley Town attack 0.779 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.084. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Swindon Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 91 Swindon Town games / 91 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 21%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 4.76. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swindon Town as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 30% | Crawley Town 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Swindon Town 1.57 / Crawley Town 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 0.955 / def 1.083 | Crawley Town attack 0.779 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Crawley Town xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 8 May 2023 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Swindon Town 2 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 52% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Swindon Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Swindon Town 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Swindon Town and Crawley Town in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (0.95) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.62
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.49
0.91
Crawley Town xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.91 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 37W 24D 30L from 91 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 28W 23D 40L across 91 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.48 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 18W 13D 14L from 45 games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 10W 10D 25L across 45 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swindon Town are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.13 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 91 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 37W 24D 30L in their last 91 games (1.48 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 28W 23D 40L in their last 91 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.49 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swindon Town and Crawley Town runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Swindon Town won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Swindon Town
2
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 3, Crawley Town have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-2 Swindon Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 53%, Crawley Town 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Swindon Town) and 53% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Crawley Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 56% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Swindon Town's recent games and 53% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Crawley Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Crawley Town 2-1 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.57 xG and Crawley Town 0.91 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Crawley Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.33, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 21%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 55%, Crawley Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.48 PPG, Crawley Town 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.