Stevenage 1-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Swindon Town at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Swindon Town at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swindon Town stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Swindon Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Swindon Town — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Swindon Town 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 20% | Swindon Town 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.88 xG and Swindon Town 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.963 / defence 1.049 | Swindon Town attack 1.088 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 0.903 / away 1.014. Data: 5 Stevenage games / 5 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 25% | Draw 36% | Swindon Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Swindon Town 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Swindon Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 25% | Draw 36% | Swindon Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Stevenage 0.88 / Swindon Town 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.963 / def 1.049 | Swindon Town attack 1.088 / def 1.009 | league avg home 0.903 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Swindon Town xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Swindon Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Swindon Town?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Swindon Town part of?
Stevenage vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 25% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stevenage and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Swindon Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Swindon Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Swindon Town's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
25%
4.03
36%
2.79
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.04
1.16
Swindon Town xG
4.03
25%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.83
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.16 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Swindon Town, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Swindon Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Swindon Town by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Swindon Town in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Swindon Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Stevenage or Swindon Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Swindon Town in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Swindon Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Stevenage's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
0
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Swindon Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Swindon Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2023, when Swindon Town 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Swindon Town?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Swindon Town tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Swindon Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Stevenage and 40% for Swindon Town.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Swindon Town in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Swindon Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 40% of Swindon Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Stevenage's recent games and 40% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Swindon Town finished level at 1-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.88 xG and Swindon Town 1.16 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Swindon Town attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 25% | Draw 36% | Swindon Town 39%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 20%, Swindon Town 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Swindon Town's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.