Mansfield Town 1-3 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Harrogate Town at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Harrogate Town in League Two, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 4 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mansfield Town have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 League Two outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at One Call Stadium, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Mansfield Town are significantly better at One Call Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Harrogate Town (all games): 3W 1D 0L across 4 League Two outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Harrogate Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Harrogate Town arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Mansfield Town register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Harrogate Town in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Harrogate Town half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mansfield Town 75% and Harrogate Town 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 50% | Harrogate Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.07 xG and Harrogate Town 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.227 / defence 1.416 | Harrogate Town attack 1.017 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 0.903 / away 1.014. Data: 5 Mansfield Town games / 4 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 43%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Harrogate Town 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Harrogate Town at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 100% | Harrogate Town 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Mansfield Town 1.07 / Harrogate Town 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.227 / def 1.416 | Harrogate Town attack 1.017 / def 0.963 | league avg home 0.903 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Harrogate Town xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Mansfield Town 1 - 3 Harrogate Town.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town part of?
Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 25% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (1.02x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
25%
4.00
32%
3.17
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.53
1.46
Harrogate Town xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
17.26
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.46 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Harrogate Town's form line: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Harrogate Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Harrogate Town are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mansfield Town.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Harrogate Town in 75%.
Last 4 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Harrogate Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mansfield Town go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 9-2 on 13 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
3
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 2, Harrogate Town have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Mansfield Town 9-2 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town?
Harrogate Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Mansfield Town, 75% for Harrogate Town — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mansfield Town) and 50% (Harrogate Town).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Harrogate Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mansfield Town's games and 75% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 50% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mansfield Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town beat Mansfield Town 1-3 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.07 xG and Harrogate Town 1.46 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Harrogate Town outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.23 / defence 1.42 against Harrogate Town attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 43%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 50%, Harrogate Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Harrogate Town arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Mansfield Town shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.