Swindon Town 1-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Swindon Town take on Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The County Ground plays host to Swindon Town versus Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swindon Town have collected 1.83 PPG across 6 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 1L. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Swindon Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Swindon Town at The County Ground this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The County Ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.83 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The County Ground this season.
Port Vale (all games): 1W 3D 2L across 6 League Two outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Port Vale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port Vale's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in League Two this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Swindon Town's 1.83 PPG return is 0.83 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Swindon Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 50% versus Port Vale 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Swindon Town 33% | Port Vale 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 0.74 xG and Port Vale 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 0.843 / defence 1.061 | Port Vale attack 0.834 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 1.094. Data: 6 Swindon Town games / 6 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 24% | Draw 40% | Port Vale 36%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 4.17 | Draw 2.50 | Port Vale 2.78. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 33% | Port Vale 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 24% | Draw 40% | Port Vale 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Swindon Town 0.74 / Port Vale 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 0.843 / def 1.061 | Port Vale attack 0.834 / def 0.958 | league avg home 0.923 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Port Vale xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Port Vale kick off?
Swindon Town vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Swindon Town 1 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Swindon Town vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Port Vale part of?
Swindon Town vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 24% chance of winning, Port Vale a 36% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Swindon Town and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Port Vale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swindon Town and Port Vale in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Port Vale (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swindon Town's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.83x) against Swindon Town's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.20
40%
2.50
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
1.71
0.97
Port Vale xG
4.20
24%
Home win
2.50
40%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.97 for Port Vale, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Swindon Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Swindon Town by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Port Vale's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Port Vale in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Port Vale away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.33 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Swindon Town or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Port Vale in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Swindon Town
1
Draws
3
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 2, Port Vale have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Swindon Town 3-3 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Swindon Town) and 33% (Port Vale) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Swindon Town and 0% for Port Vale.
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Port Vale in 33%; Swindon Town have failed to score in 33% of games; Port Vale in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 33% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Swindon Town's recent games and 0% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Port Vale tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Swindon Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Swindon Town 1-2 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 0.74 xG and Port Vale 0.97 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Port Vale outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Port Vale attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 24% | Draw 40% | Port Vale 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 33%, Port Vale 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Port Vale winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.