Shrewsbury 0-4 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shrewsbury face Crewe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Crewe travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury in League Two (matchday 39). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Shrewsbury — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crewe stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Crewe's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shrewsbury at 1.80 PPG versus Crewe's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Shrewsbury have won 0, Crewe 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Shrewsbury 1–3 Crewe — a Crewe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Crewe in-play tendencies (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 50% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 46% | Crewe 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shrewsbury surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Crewe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.96 xG and Crewe 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.817 / defence 1.022 | Crewe attack 0.938 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.198. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 38 games and Crewe's last 84.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 30% | Draw 30% | Crewe 40%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 3.28 | Draw 3.37 | Crewe 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crewe are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shrewsbury's last 10 home games and Crewe's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 40% (last 10 home games) | Crewe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, matchday 39 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 30% | Draw 30% | Crewe 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Shrewsbury 0.96 / Crewe 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.817 / def 1.022 | Crewe attack 0.938 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Crewe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Crewe xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Crewe FAQs
What time does Shrewsbury vs Crewe kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Crewe?
Shrewsbury 0 - 4 Crewe.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Crewe part of?
Shrewsbury vs Crewe is a League Two fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 30% chance of winning, Crewe a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shrewsbury and Crewe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Shrewsbury vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.82) and Crewe's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shrewsbury's last 38 games and Crewe's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
30%
3.28
30%
3.37
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.11
1.15
Crewe xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.9 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shrewsbury vs Crewe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.15 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 19W 17D 48L from 84 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 31W 26D 27L across 84 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crewe by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 12W 8D 22L from their last 42 home games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 12W 16D 14L across their last 42 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.23 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
Shrewsbury (Home) vs Crewe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Shrewsbury vs Crewe Form FAQs
What form are Shrewsbury and Crewe in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 19W 17D 48L in their last 84 games (0.88 PPG), while Crewe have gone 31W 26D 27L in their last 84 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Crewe away?
Crewe's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.05 PPG; Crewe away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Mar 2026, when Crewe won Shrewsbury 0-4 Crewe.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
3
Draws
2
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Shrewsbury vs Crewe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Crewe?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Shrewsbury have won 0, Crewe have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Crewe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Crewe 1-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crewe see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 43%, Crewe 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shrewsbury) and 33% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 40% of games; Crewe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Crewe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shrewsbury and Crewe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 55% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shrewsbury and Crewe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 33% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Crewe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Shrewsbury 0-4 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.96 xG and Crewe 1.15 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Crewe outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Crewe attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 30% | Draw 30% | Crewe 40%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 46%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crewe's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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