Crawley Town 1-4 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 15 as Crawley Town welcome Port Vale to The People's Pension Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at The People's Pension Stadium: 3W 2D 2L from 7 League Two appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Port Vale have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.57 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Port Vale are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Port Vale in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Port Vale 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Port Vale 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.15 xG and Port Vale 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.928 / defence 1.225 | Port Vale attack 0.976 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.172. Data: 14 Crawley Town games / 14 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Port Vale 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 71% | Port Vale 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Crawley Town 1.15 / Port Vale 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.928 / def 1.225 | Port Vale attack 0.976 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Port Vale xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Port Vale kick off?
Crawley Town vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Crawley Town 1 - 4 Port Vale.
Where is Crawley Town vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Port Vale part of?
Crawley Town vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Port Vale a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Port Vale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Port Vale in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Port Vale (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.93x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
28%
3.59
32%
3.10
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.55
1.40
Port Vale xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.40 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 2D 7L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crawley Town's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Port Vale away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.57 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Port Vale in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Port Vale runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Port Vale?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Port Vale have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Port Vale 4-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 71%, Port Vale 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Crawley Town) and 29% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Crawley Town's games and 57% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Crawley Town's recent games and 29% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Port Vale tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port Vale run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Crawley Town 1-4 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.15 xG and Port Vale 1.40 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Port Vale outscored their 1.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against Port Vale attack 0.98 / defence 1.19, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 40%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Port Vale 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.