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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Salford City 1-3 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.73 xG and Newport County 0.89 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Newport County outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Newport County attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 75/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Newport County 19%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Newport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 47%, Newport County 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Newport County's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Newport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights