Rochdale 1-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salford City at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Salford City travel to Crown Oil Arena to take on Rochdale. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rochdale's home record at Crown Oil Arena: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salford City — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Rochdale) versus 1.40 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rochdale, 0 for Salford City and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rochdale in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Salford City in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 48% versus Salford City 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 42% | Salford City 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 0.79 xG and Salford City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.854 / defence 1.183 | Salford City attack 1.078 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.047. Salford City's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Rochdale games / 62 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 22% | Draw 29% | Salford City 49%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Salford City 2.04. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rochdale 70% | Salford City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 22% | Draw 29% | Salford City 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Rochdale 0.79 / Salford City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.854 / def 1.183 | Salford City attack 1.078 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Salford City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Salford City xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Salford City kick off?
Rochdale vs Salford City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Salford City?
Rochdale 1 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Rochdale vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs Salford City part of?
Rochdale vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 22% chance of winning, Salford City a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rochdale and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Salford City?
Record (2 meetings): Rochdale 0W | Draws 2 | Salford City 0W.
What form are Rochdale and Salford City in?
Rochdale (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Salford City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rochdale's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Salford City's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
22%
4.62
29%
3.43
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.12
1.34
Salford City xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
6%
17.57
22%
4.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 16.0 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.34 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rochdale come into this having played 62 games, going 15W 20D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.56 PPG from 62 outings (27W 16D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Rochdale — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rochdale's home form reads 8W 12D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.57 points per game from 30 outings (14W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Rochdale are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.27 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Salford City in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 15W 20D 27L in their last 62 games (1.05 PPG), while Salford City have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.20 PPG; Salford City away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Rochdale or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Salford City in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rochdale and Salford City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rochdale's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rochdale
2
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 1, Salford City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Salford City 2-1 Rochdale.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 53%, Salford City 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rochdale) and 37% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Salford City in 43%; Rochdale have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Rochdale's recent matches and 43% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rochdale vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rochdale's recent games and 37% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Salford City tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Salford City in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rochdale defy the odds to beat Salford City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rochdale beat Salford City 1-0 at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 0.79 xG and Salford City 1.34 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Salford City attack 1.08 / defence 0.76, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 22% | Draw 29% | Salford City 49%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Rochdale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 42%, Salford City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Salford City's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Rochdale winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rochdale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.