Rochdale 0-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Mansfield Town travel to Crown Oil Arena to take on Rochdale. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Mansfield Town have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rochdale 1.30 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Rochdale have won 0, Mansfield Town 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Mansfield Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rochdale in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mansfield Town in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 48% versus Mansfield Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 41% | Mansfield Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.08 xG and Mansfield Town 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.863 / defence 1.080 | Mansfield Town attack 1.203 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.041. Mansfield Town have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Rochdale games / 63 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 30% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 43%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Mansfield Town 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Rochdale 70% | Mansfield Town 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 30% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Rochdale 1.08 / Mansfield Town 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.863 / def 1.080 | Mansfield Town attack 1.203 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Mansfield Town xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Rochdale vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Mansfield Town?
Rochdale 0 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Rochdale vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs Mansfield Town part of?
Rochdale vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 30% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rochdale and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Mansfield Town?
Record (2 meetings): Rochdale 0W | Draws 1 | Mansfield Town 1W.
What form are Rochdale and Mansfield Town in?
Rochdale (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rochdale's attack at 0.86x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
30%
3.39
28%
3.62
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.43
1.35
Mansfield Town xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.35 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rochdale come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 20D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.63 PPG from 63 outings (30W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Rochdale — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rochdale's home form reads 9W 12D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.35 points per game from 31 outings (12W 6D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rochdale are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.44 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 16W 20D 27L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 30W 13D 20L in their last 63 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.26 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Rochdale or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rochdale's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rochdale
2
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 0, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Mansfield Town 1-1 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Rochdale and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 52%, Mansfield Town 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Rochdale) and 48% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rochdale have failed to score in 29% of games; Mansfield Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rochdale's recent matches and 48% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rochdale vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Rochdale's recent games and 48% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Rochdale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Rochdale 0-1 at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 1.08 xG and Mansfield Town 1.35 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rochdale fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Mansfield Town attack 1.20 / defence 1.01, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 30% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 43%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 41%, Mansfield Town 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.