Mansfield Town 1-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mansfield Town host Bradford at One Call Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 3D 2L at One Call Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bradford — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mansfield Town at 1.80 PPG versus Bradford's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mansfield Town have won 1, Bradford 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mansfield Town trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 53% versus Bradford 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 52% | Bradford 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.26 xG and Bradford 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.193 / defence 1.231 | Bradford attack 1.100 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.047. Data: 62 Mansfield Town games / 62 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 33% | Draw 27% | Bradford 40%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Bradford 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 60% | Bradford 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 33% | Draw 27% | Bradford 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Mansfield Town 1.26 / Bradford 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.193 / def 1.231 | Bradford attack 1.100 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Bradford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bradford xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Bradford kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Mansfield Town 1 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Bradford part of?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 33% chance of winning, Bradford a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mansfield Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): Mansfield Town 1W | Draws 0 | Bradford 1W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Bradford (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.75
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.68
1.42
Bradford xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.42 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mansfield Town come into this having played 62 games, going 30W 13D 19L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.37 PPG from 62 outings (21W 22D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mansfield Town on 1.66 PPG, Bradford on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mansfield Town's home form reads 18W 7D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 30W 13D 19L in their last 62 games (1.66 PPG), while Bradford have gone 21W 22D 19L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Bradford away?
Mansfield Town's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 2.03 PPG; Bradford away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bradford in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mansfield Town and Bradford runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mansfield Town's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 57%, Bradford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mansfield Town) and 43% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bradford in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 47% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 43% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Bradford tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bradford in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Mansfield Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.26 xG and Bradford 1.42 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.19 / defence 1.23 against Bradford attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 33% | Draw 27% | Bradford 40%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 52%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.66 PPG, Bradford 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.