Oldham 1-3 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sutton Utd make the trip to Boundary Park to face Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Tuesday 22 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Oldham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Boundary Park, Oldham have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sutton Utd's overall League Two record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Sutton Utd have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Oldham, 1.10 for Sutton Utd — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oldham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sutton Utd in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Oldham 1W, Sutton Utd 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Oldham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Oldham — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sutton Utd — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 47% versus Sutton Utd 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 56% | Sutton Utd 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.32 xG and Sutton Utd 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.942 / defence 1.439 | Sutton Utd attack 0.898 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.129. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Oldham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Oldham games / 37 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 32% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 38%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Sutton Utd 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sutton Utd as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 60% | Sutton Utd 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 32% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Oldham 1.32 / Sutton Utd 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.942 / def 1.439 | Sutton Utd attack 0.898 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sutton Utd xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Oldham vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 March 2022 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Sutton Utd?
Oldham 1 - 3 Sutton Utd.
Where is Oldham vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Sutton Utd part of?
Oldham vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 32% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Oldham and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Sutton Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Oldham 1W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 0W.
What form are Oldham and Sutton Utd in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Oldham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.90x) against Oldham's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
32%
3.10
29%
3.42
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.78
1.46
Sutton Utd xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Oldham and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Oldham and 1.46 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oldham come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 10D 19L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (16W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Sutton Utd carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Oldham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Oldham's home form reads 4W 3D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Sutton Utd have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Attack vs Defence
Oldham are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.50 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 7W 10D 19L in their last 36 games (0.86 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 16W 10D 10L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Sutton Utd away?
Sutton Utd's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.88 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Oldham or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oldham
0
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Sutton Utd?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2022, when Oldham 1-3 Sutton Utd.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 53%, Sutton Utd 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Oldham) and 41% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Oldham have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Oldham's recent matches and 53% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Oldham's recent games and 41% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sutton Utd cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Oldham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Oldham 1-3 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.32 xG and Sutton Utd 1.46 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sutton Utd outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.94 / defence 1.44 against Sutton Utd attack 0.90 / defence 1.36, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 32% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 38%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 56%, Sutton Utd 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.