Sutton Utd 1-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sutton Utd vs Tranmere fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sutton Utd and Tranmere meet at VBS Community Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sutton Utd's overall League Two record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sutton Utd's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at VBS Community Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VBS Community Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sutton Utd are significantly better at VBS Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tranmere have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Tranmere have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sutton Utd against 1.40 for Tranmere. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sutton Utd lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Sutton Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sutton Utd — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Tranmere — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 53% versus Tranmere 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sutton Utd 47% | Tranmere 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.60 xG and Tranmere 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.221 / defence 0.914 | Tranmere attack 0.798 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.112. Tranmere bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Sutton Utd's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Sutton Utd games / 37 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 54% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 17%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Tranmere 5.88. Sutton Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sutton Utd are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sutton Utd 50% | Tranmere 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 54% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Sutton Utd 1.60 / Tranmere 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 1.221 / def 0.914 | Tranmere attack 0.798 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Tranmere xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Tranmere kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Sutton Utd 1 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Tranmere part of?
Sutton Utd vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 54% chance of winning, Tranmere a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sutton Utd and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Tranmere?
Record (1 meetings): Sutton Utd 1W | Draws 0 | Tranmere 0W.
What form are Sutton Utd and Tranmere in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Tranmere (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sutton Utd's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Tranmere's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Tranmere's attack (0.80x) against Sutton Utd's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.46
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.41
0.81
Tranmere xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
29.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.81 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Sutton Utd have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 16W 9D 11L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Tranmere's form line: 17W 8D 11L from 36 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Sutton Utd against 1.64 for Tranmere. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sutton Utd have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tranmere have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tranmere's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.17 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tranmere in 28%.
Defensively: Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Tranmere in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Current Season
Tranmere
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 17W 8D 11L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Tranmere away?
Sutton Utd's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 2.06 PPG; Tranmere away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Tranmere in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sutton Utd have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tranmere — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sutton Utd
3
Draws
2
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Tranmere?
From 6 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 1, Tranmere have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Tranmere 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Tranmere?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Tranmere see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 50%, Tranmere 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sutton Utd) and 22% (Tranmere).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Tranmere in 39%; Tranmere in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 33% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sutton Utd vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 22% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Tranmere tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sutton Utd and Tranmere share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd and Tranmere finished level at 1-1 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.60 xG and Tranmere 0.81 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Tranmere attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 54% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 17%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 47%, Tranmere 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Tranmere's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sutton Utd 1.58 PPG, Tranmere 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.