Northampton 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 26 as Northampton welcome Crawley Town to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Northampton — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Northampton have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Northampton have won 0, Crawley Town 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Crawley Town trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 48% versus Crawley Town 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 48% | Crawley Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.31 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.094 / defence 0.941 | Crawley Town attack 0.881 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.155. Data: 22 Northampton games / 21 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 42% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 25%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Crawley Town 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 30% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 42% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Northampton 1.31 / Crawley Town 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.094 / def 0.941 | Crawley Town attack 0.881 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Northampton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Crawley Town xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Crawley Town kick off?
Northampton vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Northampton 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Northampton vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Crawley Town part of?
Northampton vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 42% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Northampton and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Northampton and Crawley Town in?
Northampton (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (1.09) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
42%
2.37
33%
3.04
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.26
0.96
Crawley Town xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Northampton and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Northampton and 0.96 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 21 games, going 11W 4D 6L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 6W 1D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 67%.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 11W 4D 6L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 8W 4D 9L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Crawley Town away?
Northampton's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 2.11 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Northampton or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Crawley Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Crawley Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Crawley Town 3-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 33%, Crawley Town 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Northampton) and 44% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Northampton's recent matches and 56% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Northampton's recent games and 44% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Northampton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Northampton 0-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.31 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Northampton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 42% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 25%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 48%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.