Oldham 1-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Salford City — this Oldham vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Salford City travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham in League Two (matchday 44). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oldham stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Oldham at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Salford City have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Salford City have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oldham at 1.90 PPG versus Salford City's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Salford City have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Oldham. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Oldham 0–1 Salford City — a Salford City win.
Salford City have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Salford City trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 42% versus Salford City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 44% | Salford City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.22 xG and Salford City 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.007 / defence 0.752 | Salford City attack 0.913 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.191. Oldham have a tight defence (rating 0.752), which is pulling Salford City's projected output down. Data: built from Oldham's last 43 games and Salford City's last 89.
Result probabilities: Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.19 | Draw 3.37 | Salford City 4.03. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oldham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oldham 40% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 44 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Oldham 1.22 / Salford City 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.007 / def 0.752 | Salford City attack 0.913 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Oldham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Salford City xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oldham vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Oldham vs Salford City kick off?
Oldham vs Salford City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Oldham 1 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Oldham vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Salford City part of?
Oldham vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 46% chance of winning, Salford City a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Oldham and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Oldham vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oldham's attack at 1.01x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oldham's last 43 games and Salford City's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.37
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.04
0.82
Salford City xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oldham vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oldham and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Oldham and 0.82 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham's recent record stands at 17W 14D 12L from 43 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 23W 5D 15L across 43 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.51 PPG, Salford City on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 9W 8D 4L from their last 21 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 10W 1D 10L across their last 21 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
Oldham (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oldham
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Oldham vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Oldham and Salford City in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 17W 14D 12L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Salford City have gone 23W 5D 15L in their last 43 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Salford City away?
Oldham's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.67 PPG; Salford City away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Oldham or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Salford City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Salford City have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Sep 2026, when Salford City won Oldham 1-4 Salford City.
Oldham's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Oldham
0
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Oldham vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Oldham have won 0, Salford City have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Oldham 1-4 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 43%, Salford City 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Oldham) and 43% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Salford City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oldham vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oldham and Salford City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oldham's recent matches and 48% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oldham and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Oldham's recent games and 43% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Oldham's recent matches and 71% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Oldham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Oldham 1-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.22 xG and Salford City 0.82 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.01 / defence 0.75 against Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 44%, Salford City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Salford City's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.51 PPG, Salford City 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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