🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Shrewsbury make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Crawley Town (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Crawley Town's home record at The Broadfield Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Shrewsbury have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.20 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crawley Town lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Shrewsbury winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Crawley Town — key trading statistics (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 49% versus Shrewsbury 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 51% | Shrewsbury 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.41 xG and Shrewsbury 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.885 / defence 1.156 | Shrewsbury attack 0.839 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.191. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Crawley Town games / 43 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 43% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 31%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Shrewsbury 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 50% | Shrewsbury 40%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights