Notts County 1-2 Barnet – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Notts County at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Barnet fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Barnet at Meadow Lane in League Two, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Notts County's home record at Meadow Lane: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Barnet have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Barnet have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Barnet — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Notts County have won 1, Barnet 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Notts County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Barnet in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 56% versus Barnet 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 58% | Barnet 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.87 xG and Barnet 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.410 / defence 0.978 | Barnet attack 1.152 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.191. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 89 Notts County games / 43 Barnet games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 50% | Draw 23% | Barnet 28%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Barnet 3.57. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Barnet (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 50% | Barnet 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Barnet | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 50% | Draw 23% | Barnet 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Notts County 1.87 / Barnet 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.410 / def 0.978 | Barnet attack 1.152 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Notts County (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Barnet xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Barnet kick off?
Notts County vs Barnet kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Barnet?
Notts County 1 - 2 Barnet.
Where is Notts County vs Barnet being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Barnet part of?
Notts County vs Barnet is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Barnet?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 50% chance of winning, Barnet a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Barnet?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Notts County and Barnet will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Barnet have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Barnet?
Record (1 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Barnet 0W.
What form are Notts County and Barnet in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Barnet (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Notts County's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Barnet's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Barnet's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.43
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Notts County xG
Total xG
3.21
1.34
Barnet xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
4%
23.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Barnet?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Notts County and Barnet expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Notts County and 1.34 for Barnet, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Barnet?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Notts County's recent record stands at 23W 7D 13L from 43 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Barnet, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 12L across 43 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.77 PPG, Barnet on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 13W 3D 5L from 21 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Barnet's away record stands at 9W 7D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Barnet are on 1.40 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 43 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Barnet
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Barnet in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 23W 7D 13L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Barnet have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Barnet away?
Notts County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 2.00 PPG; Barnet away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Notts County or Barnet been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Barnet in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Notts County and Barnet runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Notts County
0
Draws
1
Barnet
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Barnet?
From 2 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, Barnet have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Barnet last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Notts County 1-2 Barnet.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Barnet see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 57%, Barnet 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Notts County) and 33% (Barnet).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Barnet in 38%; Barnet in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Barnet away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Barnet?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Notts County's recent matches and 48% of Barnet's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Barnet usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Notts County's recent games and 33% of Barnet's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Barnet tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Barnet in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Barnet defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barnet beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.87 xG and Barnet 1.34 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Notts County fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.41 / defence 0.98 against Barnet attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 50% | Draw 23% | Barnet 28%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Barnet win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 58%, Barnet 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Barnet's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.77 PPG, Barnet 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barnet win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.