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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Oldham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Oldham 1-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.22 xG and Salford City 0.82 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.01 / defence 0.75 against Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 44%, Salford City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Salford City's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oldham 1.51 PPG, Salford City 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights