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Poisson model rates Oldham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Salford City travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Oldham at Boundary Park this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park.

Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in League Two this season, Salford City have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oldham at 1.90 PPG versus Salford City's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

Salford City have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Oldham's 0 victories.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Salford City winning.

It is worth noting that Salford City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Oldham trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Salford City trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 42% versus Salford City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 44% | Salford City 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.22 xG and Salford City 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.007 / defence 0.752 | Salford City attack 0.913 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.191. Oldham's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Oldham games / 89 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Salford City 4.00. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Oldham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 40% | Salford City 40% BTTS from recent games.

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