Oldham 1-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oldham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Salford City travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Oldham at Boundary Park this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Salford City have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oldham at 1.90 PPG versus Salford City's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Salford City have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Oldham's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Salford City winning.
It is worth noting that Salford City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Salford City trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 42% versus Salford City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 44% | Salford City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.22 xG and Salford City 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.007 / defence 0.752 | Salford City attack 0.913 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.191. Oldham's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Oldham games / 89 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Salford City 4.00. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oldham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 40% | Salford City 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Oldham 1.22 / Salford City 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.007 / def 0.752 | Salford City attack 0.913 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Oldham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Salford City xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Salford City kick off?
Oldham vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Oldham 1 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Oldham vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Salford City part of?
Oldham vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 46% chance of winning, Salford City a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Oldham and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
Record (3 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 0 | Salford City 3W.
What form are Oldham and Salford City in?
Oldham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Salford City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oldham's attack at 1.01x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.37
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.04
0.82
Salford City xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oldham and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Oldham and 0.82 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham's recent record stands at 17W 14D 12L from 43 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 23W 5D 15L across 43 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.51 PPG, Salford City on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 9W 8D 4L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 10W 1D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Salford City in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 17W 14D 12L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Salford City have gone 23W 5D 15L in their last 43 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Salford City away?
Oldham's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.67 PPG; Salford City away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Oldham or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Salford City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Salford City have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Oldham's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oldham
0
Draws
4
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 0, Salford City have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Oldham 1-2 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 43%, Salford City 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Oldham) and 43% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Salford City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oldham's recent matches and 48% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Oldham's recent games and 43% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Salford City tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Salford City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Oldham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Oldham 1-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.22 xG and Salford City 0.82 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.01 / defence 0.75 against Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 46% | Draw 30% | Salford City 25%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 44%, Salford City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Salford City's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.51 PPG, Salford City 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.