Oldham 1-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oldham face Fleetwood Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oldham host Fleetwood Town at Boundary Park in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Oldham have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Oldham have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Fleetwood Town — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fleetwood Town's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oldham at 1.20 PPG versus Fleetwood Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Oldham have won 0, Fleetwood Town 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Oldham 1–1 Fleetwood Town — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 43% versus Fleetwood Town 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 43% | Fleetwood Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.03 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.830 / defence 1.052 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.872 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Data: built from Oldham's last 28 games and Fleetwood Town's last 75.
Result probabilities: Oldham 33% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 37%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.99 | Draw 3.36 | Fleetwood Town 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fleetwood Town at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Oldham's last 10 home games and Fleetwood Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oldham 50% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 32 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 33% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Oldham 1.03 / Fleetwood Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.830 / def 1.052 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.872 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Fleetwood Town xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oldham vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Oldham vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Oldham vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Fleetwood Town?
Oldham 1 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Oldham vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Oldham vs Fleetwood Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 33% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Oldham and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Oldham vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oldham's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oldham's last 28 games and Fleetwood Town's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
33%
2.99
30%
3.36
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.12
1.10
Fleetwood Town xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oldham vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Oldham and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Oldham and 1.10 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham's recent record stands at 8W 11D 9L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 12L across 28 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.25 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 4W 5D 4L from their last 13 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 3W 3D 7L across their last 13 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.29 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 75%.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Oldham (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oldham
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Oldham vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Oldham and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 8W 11D 9L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Oldham's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.31 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Oldham or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2025. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Oldham
3
Draws
0
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Oldham vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Oldham have won 0, Fleetwood Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Oldham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 46%, Fleetwood Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oldham) and 46% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Oldham have failed to score in 38% of games; Fleetwood Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oldham vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oldham and Fleetwood Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Oldham's recent matches and 54% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oldham and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oldham's recent games and 46% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Oldham's recent matches and 69% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oldham and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 32, as Oldham and Fleetwood Town drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.03 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.10 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 33% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 37%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 43%, Fleetwood Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.25 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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