Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Oldham at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Crawley Town encounter.

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Match Analysis

Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park in League Two (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Oldham have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Oldham's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Crawley Town stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Crawley Town have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Oldham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Oldham, 0 for Crawley Town and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Oldham 2–2 Crawley Town — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Oldham in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 42% versus Crawley Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 42% | Crawley Town 48%). Note also that Crawley Town surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Oldham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.35 xG and Crawley Town 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.884 / defence 0.981 | Crawley Town attack 0.610 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Oldham's projected output up. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Oldham's last 31 games and Crawley Town's last 34.

Result probabilities: Oldham 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.91 | Draw 3.55 | Crawley Town 5.10. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oldham 50% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 40% (last 10 away games).

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