Notts County 0-0 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Notts County face Chesterfield.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Chesterfield at Meadow Lane in League Two (Semi-finals). Kick-off is Friday 15 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Notts County have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Notts County at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chesterfield stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Chesterfield's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Notts County at 1.60 PPG versus Chesterfield's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Notts County's games and 60% of Chesterfield's (from Notts County's last 10 home games and Chesterfield's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Notts County, 3 for Chesterfield and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2026, ended Notts County 1–0 Chesterfield — a Notts County win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (last 95 games, 47 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (last 95 games, 47 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 34 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Chesterfield 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 50% | Chesterfield 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Notts County surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Chesterfield have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Chesterfield surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Notts County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.44 xG and Chesterfield 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.253 / defence 1.005 | Chesterfield attack 1.086 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.199. Notts County carry an above-average attack rating of 1.253 — their 1.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Notts County's last 92 games and Chesterfield's last 92.
Result probabilities: Notts County 40% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 34%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.48 | Draw 3.93 | Chesterfield 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Notts County's last 10 home games and Chesterfield's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Notts County 70% (last 10 home games) | Chesterfield 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, Semi-finals | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 40% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Notts County 1.44 / Chesterfield 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.253 / def 1.005 | Chesterfield attack 1.086 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Notts County (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Chesterfield xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Notts County vs Chesterfield FAQs
What time does Notts County vs Chesterfield kick off?
Notts County vs Chesterfield kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 15 May 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Notts County 0 - 0 Chesterfield.
Where is Notts County vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Chesterfield part of?
Notts County vs Chesterfield is a League Two fixture (Semi-finals) (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 40% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Notts County and Chesterfield will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Notts County vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.25x the league average against Chesterfield's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chesterfield's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Notts County's last 92 games and Chesterfield's last 92 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
40%
2.48
25%
3.93
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.75
1.31
Chesterfield xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Notts County vs Chesterfield Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Notts County and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Notts County and 1.31 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Notts County's recent record stands at 45W 20D 30L from 95 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Chesterfield, meanwhile, have gone 40W 29D 26L across 95 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.63 PPG, Chesterfield on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 23W 9D 15L from their last 47 home games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chesterfield's away record stands at 19W 11D 17L across their last 47 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.53 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 95 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
Notts County (Home) vs Chesterfield (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Notts County
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
❓ Notts County vs Chesterfield Form FAQs
What form are Notts County and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 45W 20D 30L in their last 95 games (1.63 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 40W 29D 26L in their last 95 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Chesterfield away?
Notts County's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.66 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Notts County or Chesterfield been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chesterfield in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 15 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Notts County's record when hosting Chesterfield specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Notts County
2
Draws
3
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Notts County vs Chesterfield H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Chesterfield?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Notts County have won 1, Chesterfield have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Chesterfield last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2026: Notts County 0-0 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Chesterfield?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 53%, Chesterfield 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Notts County) and 49% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Notts County vs Chesterfield Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Notts County and Chesterfield matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Notts County's recent matches and 49% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Notts County and Chesterfield matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Notts County's recent games and 49% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Chesterfield matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Notts County's recent matches and 62% of Chesterfield's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Notts County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Meadow Lane, Semi-finals, as Notts County and Chesterfield drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Chesterfield 1.31 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Notts County fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Chesterfield landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.25 / defence 1.00 against Chesterfield attack 1.09 / defence 0.89, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 40% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 34%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 50%, Chesterfield 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (95 games, 47 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chesterfield's trading profile (95 games, 47 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.63 PPG, Chesterfield 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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