Notts County 3-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to Wembley Stadium to face Notts County in League Two, Final. The match kicks off on Monday 25 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Notts County have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Wembley Stadium, Notts County have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Salford City (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Salford City have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Notts County, 1.80 for Salford City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Salford City hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Salford City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Salford City have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (94 games, 47 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (94 games, 47 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 51% versus Salford City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 49% | Salford City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.44 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.247 / defence 1.006 | Salford City attack 0.906 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.199. Data: 92 Notts County games / 92 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Salford City 29%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Salford City 3.45. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 60% | Salford City 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Final | Venue: Wembley Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 25 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Salford City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Notts County 1.44 / Salford City 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.247 / def 1.006 | Salford City attack 0.906 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Notts County (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Salford City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Salford City kick off?
Notts County vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 25 May 2026 at Wembley Stadium.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Salford City?
Notts County 3 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Notts County vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Wembley Stadium.
What competition is Notts County vs Salford City part of?
Notts County vs Salford City is a Final fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 45% chance of winning, Salford City a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Notts County and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Salford City?
Record (6 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Salford City 5W.
What form are Notts County and Salford City in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Salford City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.25x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.91x) against Notts County's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 92/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.79
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.53
1.09
Salford City xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Notts County and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Notts County and 1.09 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Notts County come into this having played 94 games, going 45W 19D 30L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.64 PPG from 94 outings (44W 22D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Notts County against 1.64 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Notts County's home form reads 23W 9D 15L across 47 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.53 points per game from 47 outings (20W 12D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.37 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 94 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Salford City in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 45W 19D 30L in their last 94 games (1.64 PPG), while Salford City have gone 44W 22D 28L in their last 94 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Salford City away?
Notts County's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.66 PPG; Salford City away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Notts County or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Salford City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Salford City won 3-0 on 14 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Notts County
0
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Salford City?
From 7 meetings on record, Notts County have won 2, Salford City have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Notts County 3-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 51%, Salford City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Notts County) and 47% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Salford City in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Notts County's recent matches and 57% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Notts County's recent games and 47% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Salford City tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Salford City in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Notts County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Salford City 3-0 at Wembley Stadium, Final, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salford City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.25 / defence 1.01 against Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Salford City 29%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 49%, Salford City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (94 games, 47 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salford City's trading profile (94 games, 47 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.64 PPG, Salford City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.