Chesterfield 0-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chesterfield (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chesterfield face Notts County.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chesterfield host Notts County at SMH Group Stadium in League Two, Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chesterfield stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Notts County have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Chesterfield have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Chesterfield: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Notts County, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with Chesterfield winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Chesterfield and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (94 games, 47 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Notts County in-play and half-time data (94 games, 47 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 55% versus Notts County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 51% | Notts County 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.36 xG and Notts County 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.067 / defence 0.905 | Notts County attack 1.049 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.199. Data: 92 Chesterfield games / 92 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 42% | Draw 27% | Notts County 31%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Notts County 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chesterfield at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chesterfield 50% | Notts County 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Semi-finals | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 42% | Draw 27% | Notts County 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Chesterfield 1.36 / Notts County 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 1.067 / def 0.905 | Notts County attack 1.049 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Notts County xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Notts County kick off?
Chesterfield vs Notts County kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Chesterfield 0 - 1 Notts County.
Where is Chesterfield vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Notts County part of?
Chesterfield vs Notts County is a Semi-finals fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 42% chance of winning, Notts County a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chesterfield and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Notts County?
Record (4 meetings): Chesterfield 3W | Draws 1 | Notts County 0W.
What form are Chesterfield and Notts County in?
Chesterfield (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Notts County (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (1.07) and Notts County's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 92/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.73
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.50
1.14
Notts County xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.14 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chesterfield's recent record stands at 40W 29D 25L from 94 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 44W 20D 30L across 94 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chesterfield on 1.59 PPG, Notts County on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chesterfield have managed 21W 18D 8L from 47 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 21W 11D 15L across 47 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Chesterfield are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.51 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 94 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chesterfield and Notts County in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 40W 29D 25L in their last 94 games (1.59 PPG), while Notts County have gone 44W 20D 30L in their last 94 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Notts County away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.72 PPG; Notts County away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Chesterfield or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Notts County in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chesterfield's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chesterfield
2
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 3, Notts County have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Notts County 0-0 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Notts County?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 62%, Notts County 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Chesterfield) and 47% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Notts County in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chesterfield play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Chesterfield's games and 51% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chesterfield vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Chesterfield's recent games and 47% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Notts County tend to score early?
Chesterfield have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Notts County in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Notts County defy the odds to beat Chesterfield 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Chesterfield 0-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Semi-finals, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.36 xG and Notts County 1.14 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chesterfield fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Notts County attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 42% | Draw 27% | Notts County 31%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 51%, Notts County 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (94 games, 47 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Notts County's trading profile (94 games, 47 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.59 PPG, Notts County 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.