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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Notts County 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Notts County 0-1 at Meadow Lane, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 0.93 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.96 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Notts County fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.80 / defence 0.76, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 33% | Draw 33% | AFC Wimbledon 34%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 60%, AFC Wimbledon 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.45 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.98 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights