Crawley Town 3-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Colchester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Colchester at The People's Pension Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town at The People's Pension Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.10 PPG versus Colchester's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 0 for Colchester and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Colchester in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 65% versus Colchester 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Colchester 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.20 xG and Colchester 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.869 / defence 1.399 | Colchester attack 0.539 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.149. Colchester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Crawley Town games / 20 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 34% | Colchester 24%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Colchester 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 80% | Colchester 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 34% | Colchester 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Crawley Town 1.20 / Colchester 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.869 / def 1.399 | Colchester attack 0.539 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Colchester xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Colchester kick off?
Crawley Town vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Crawley Town 3 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Crawley Town vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Colchester part of?
Crawley Town vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Colchester a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Crawley Town and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Colchester?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Colchester in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Colchester (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.87) and Colchester's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.42
34%
2.90
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.06
0.87
Colchester xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.87 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 7W 4D 9L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colchester's form line: 5W 7D 8L from 20 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.25 PPG, Colchester on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Colchester have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 0.80 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Colchester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Colchester in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Colchester have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Colchester away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.20 PPG; Colchester away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
4
Draws
1
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Colchester?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Colchester have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Colchester 0-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Colchester?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 80%, Colchester 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Crawley Town) and 40% (Colchester). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Colchester in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Colchester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Crawley Town's games and 30% of Colchester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Crawley Town's matches and 40% of Colchester's.
Do Crawley Town and Colchester tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Colchester in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Colchester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Colchester 3-1 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.20 xG and Colchester 0.87 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.40 against Colchester attack 0.54 / defence 1.29, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 34% | Colchester 24%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Colchester 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Colchester's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.25 PPG, Colchester 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.