Newport County 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newport County at 39%, yet in-form Shrewsbury provide a compelling counter-argument — this Newport County vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shrewsbury travel to Rodney Parade to take on Newport County in League Two (matchday 40). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Newport County — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Newport County at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Shrewsbury have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shrewsbury's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shrewsbury are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Newport County, 1 for Shrewsbury and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Nov 2025, ended Newport County 0–1 Shrewsbury — a Shrewsbury win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Newport County trading profile (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Shrewsbury trading profile (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 49% versus Shrewsbury 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 56% | Shrewsbury 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.36 xG and Shrewsbury 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.869 / defence 1.209 | Shrewsbury attack 0.897 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.192. Shrewsbury's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Newport County's projected output up. Newport County's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shrewsbury's projected output up. Data: built from Newport County's last 85 games and Shrewsbury's last 39.
Result probabilities: Newport County 39% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 35%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.59 | Draw 3.84 | Shrewsbury 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newport County as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shrewsbury (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Newport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League Two, matchday 40 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 39% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Newport County 1.36 / Shrewsbury 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 0.869 / def 1.209 | Shrewsbury attack 0.897 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Newport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Shrewsbury xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newport County vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Newport County vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Newport County vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 March 2026 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
Newport County 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Newport County vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Shrewsbury part of?
Newport County vs Shrewsbury is a League Two fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 39% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Newport County and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Newport County vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newport County's attack rating (0.87) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Newport County's last 85 games and Shrewsbury's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.84
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
Shrewsbury xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newport County vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Newport County and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Newport County and 1.29 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 85 outings, Newport County have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 21W 17D 47L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Shrewsbury's form line: 19W 17D 49L from 85 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 0.94 PPG, Shrewsbury on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Newport County have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 42 home games (13W 9D 20L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 7W 9D 26L from their last 42 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newport County are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.92 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Newport County (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newport County
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Newport County vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Newport County and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 21W 17D 47L in their last 85 games (0.94 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 19W 17D 49L in their last 85 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Shrewsbury away?
Newport County's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.14 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Newport County
0
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Newport County vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Shrewsbury?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Newport County have won 1, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Newport County 1-0 Shrewsbury.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newport County see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 52%, Shrewsbury 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Newport County) and 52% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Newport County have failed to score in 38% of games; Shrewsbury in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newport County vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newport County and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Newport County's recent matches and 57% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Newport County and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Newport County's recent games and 52% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Newport County's recent matches and 69% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Newport County edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newport County beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.36 xG and Shrewsbury 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Shrewsbury attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 39% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 35%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Shrewsbury 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 0.94 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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