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Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Newport County 0-2 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.17 xG and Crawley Town 0.70 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Newport County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Crawley Town outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Crawley Town attack 0.53 / defence 1.14, drawn from 86/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 47% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 22%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Crawley Town 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crawley Town's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 0.97 PPG, Crawley Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights