Crawley Town 0-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Bradford at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crawley Town at Broadfield Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bradford's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bradford are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Bradford and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 61% versus Bradford 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.06 xG and Bradford 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.220 / defence 1.270 | Bradford attack 0.999 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.048. Bradford's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 85 Crawley Town games / 84 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 31% | Bradford 41%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Bradford 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Crawley Town dominate the H2H record, yet Bradford are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Bradford 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 31% | Bradford 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Crawley Town 1.06 / Bradford 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.220 / def 1.270 | Bradford attack 0.999 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Bradford (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bradford xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Bradford kick off?
Crawley Town vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Crawley Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Bradford part of?
Crawley Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Bradford a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Crawley Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bradford?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 1 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Bradford in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Bradford (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.22) and Bradford's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
28%
3.54
31%
3.26
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.39
1.33
Bradford xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.33 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 84 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 26W 20D 38L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 31W 29D 24L from 84 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.17 PPG, Bradford on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 17W 11D 13L from 41 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.20 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 84 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 26W 20D 38L in their last 84 games (1.17 PPG), while Bradford have gone 31W 29D 24L in their last 84 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.41 PPG; Bradford away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bradford in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Bradford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 4, Bradford have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Bradford 2-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Bradford?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Bradford 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 39% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 37%; Bradford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 42% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 39% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Bradford tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bradford in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 40, as Crawley Town and Bradford drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.06 xG and Bradford 1.33 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.22 / defence 1.27 against Bradford attack 1.00 / defence 0.76, drawn from 85/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 31% | Bradford 41%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Bradford 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.17 PPG, Bradford 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.