Gillingham 1-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gillingham face Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gillingham welcome Walsall to Priestfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gillingham stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Walsall have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Walsall away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Gillingham) versus 1.70 (Walsall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Gillingham have won 0, Walsall 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Oct 2023, ended Gillingham 1–4 Walsall — a Walsall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gillingham in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Walsall in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 34% versus Walsall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 29% | Walsall 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.26 xG and Walsall 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.709 / defence 0.939 | Walsall attack 1.202 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.349. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Walsall have an above-average attack rating of 1.202, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Gillingham's last 74 games and Walsall's last 73.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 26% | Walsall 43%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.18 | Draw 3.91 | Walsall 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gillingham's last 10 home games and Walsall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 50% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, matchday 31 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 26% | Walsall 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Gillingham 1.26 / Walsall 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.709 / def 0.939 | Walsall attack 1.202 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Walsall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Walsall xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs Walsall kick off?
Gillingham vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Gillingham 1 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Gillingham vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Walsall part of?
Gillingham vs Walsall is a League Two fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 31% chance of winning, Walsall a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gillingham and Walsall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gillingham vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.71x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 74 games and Walsall's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
31%
3.18
26%
3.91
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.79
1.52
Walsall xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.52 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Gillingham have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 27W 16D 30L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Walsall's form line: 22W 26D 25L from 73 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.33 PPG, Walsall on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 37 home games (18W 7D 12L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 7W 12D 18L from their last 37 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.19 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Walsall
Blended
Gillingham (Home) vs Walsall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Current Season
Walsall
Blended
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and Walsall in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 27W 16D 30L in their last 73 games (1.33 PPG), while Walsall have gone 22W 26D 25L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Walsall away?
Gillingham's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.65 PPG; Walsall away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Walsall in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Oct 2023, when Walsall won Walsall 4-1 Gillingham.
Gillingham's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Gillingham
5
Draws
3
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Walsall?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 1, Walsall have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Walsall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Gillingham 0-3 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 35%, Walsall 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Gillingham) and 54% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 32% of games; Walsall in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and Walsall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Gillingham's recent matches and 60% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and Walsall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Gillingham's recent games and 54% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Walsall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Gillingham's recent matches and 70% of Walsall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gillingham and Walsall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Gillingham and Walsall drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.26 xG and Walsall 1.52 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Walsall attack 1.20 / defence 1.18, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 31% | Draw 26% | Walsall 43%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 29%, Walsall 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.33 PPG, Walsall 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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