Bradford 0-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to University of Bradford Stadium to face Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bradford's home record at University of Bradford Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bradford, 1.40 for AFC Wimbledon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bradford 1W, AFC Wimbledon 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Bradford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 53% versus AFC Wimbledon 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 45% | AFC Wimbledon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.16 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.827 / defence 0.985 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.752 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.349. Data: 75 Bradford games / 74 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 39% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 31%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | AFC Wimbledon 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 70% | AFC Wimbledon 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 39% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Bradford 1.16 / AFC Wimbledon 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.827 / def 0.985 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.752 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bradford (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.00
AFC Wimbledon xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Bradford 0 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 39% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bradford and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (3 meetings): Bradford 1W | Draws 2 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.83x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.75x) against Bradford's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 75/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.34
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.15
1.00
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bradford and 1.00 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 29W 24D 21L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 22W 24D 28L from 74 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Bradford against 1.22 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.54 PPG from 35 outings (13W 15D 7L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 8W 13D 14L from 35 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.24 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 74 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 29W 24D 21L in their last 74 games (1.50 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 22W 24D 28L in their last 74 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Bradford's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.54 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Bradford or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
4
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 63%, AFC Wimbledon 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bradford) and 49% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 34%; AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bradford's games and 51% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bradford's recent games and 49% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bradford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Bradford and AFC Wimbledon drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.16 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.00 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bradford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.75 / defence 0.93, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 39% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 31%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 45%, AFC Wimbledon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (74 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (74 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.50 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.