Walsall 1-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Walsall host Sutton Utd at Poundland Bescot Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Walsall have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Walsall have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Walsall carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Walsall have won 2, Sutton Utd 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with Sutton Utd winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Walsall trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sutton Utd trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 56% versus Sutton Utd 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 44% | Sutton Utd 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.96 xG and Sutton Utd 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.950 / defence 0.728 | Sutton Utd attack 0.747 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.338. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Walsall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Walsall's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Walsall games / 73 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 66% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 13%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Sutton Utd 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Walsall (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Walsall at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Walsall 40% | Sutton Utd 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 66% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 45% | xG Walsall 1.96 / Sutton Utd 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.950 / def 0.728 | Sutton Utd attack 0.747 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Walsall (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Sutton Utd xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Walsall vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Walsall 1 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Walsall vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Sutton Utd part of?
Walsall vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 66% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Walsall and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
Record (5 meetings): Walsall 2W | Draws 2 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Walsall and Sutton Utd in?
Walsall (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Walsall's attack rating (0.95) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.72
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.68
0.73
Sutton Utd xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
2%
55.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Walsall and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Walsall and 0.73 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Walsall's recent record stands at 22W 25D 25L from 72 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 33L across 72 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.26 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 15W 13D 7L from 35 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 5W 11D 19L across 35 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 22W 25D 25L in their last 72 games (1.26 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 19W 20D 33L in their last 72 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Sutton Utd away?
Walsall's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.66 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Walsall and Sutton Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Sutton Utd won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Walsall's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Walsall
3
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Walsall have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Walsall 1-1 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 51%, Sutton Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Walsall) and 51% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Walsall have failed to score in 29% of games; Sutton Utd in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Walsall's recent matches and 54% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Walsall vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Walsall's recent games and 51% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall and Sutton Utd share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall and Sutton Utd finished level at 1-1 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.96 xG and Sutton Utd 0.73 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Sutton Utd attack 0.75 / defence 1.35, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 66% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 13%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 44%, Sutton Utd 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.26 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.