Forest Green 1-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forest Green at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forest Green vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to The Fully Charged New Lawn to face Forest Green in League Two, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Forest Green's overall League Two record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forest Green have posted 6W 2D 2L at The Fully Charged New Lawn — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Fully Charged New Lawn. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Forest Green are significantly better at The Fully Charged New Lawn than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mansfield Town are 0.50 PPG clear of Forest Green in recent League Two fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Forest Green — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 47% versus Mansfield Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 34% | Mansfield Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 1.18 xG and Mansfield Town 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.971 / defence 0.912 | Mansfield Town attack 0.983 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.105. Mansfield Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Forest Green's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Forest Green games / 38 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 39% | Draw 32% | Mansfield Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Mansfield Town 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forest Green are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mansfield Town (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forest Green if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forest Green 20% | Mansfield Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Fully Charged New Lawn • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 39% | Draw 32% | Mansfield Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Forest Green 1.18 / Mansfield Town 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.971 / def 0.912 | Mansfield Town attack 0.983 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Forest Green (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Mansfield Town xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Forest Green vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at The Fully Charged New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Mansfield Town?
Forest Green 1 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Forest Green vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Fully Charged New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Mansfield Town part of?
Forest Green vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 39% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Forest Green the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Forest Green and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Mansfield Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forest Green and Mansfield Town in?
Forest Green (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Forest Green's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.98x) against Forest Green's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forest Green Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.15
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.17
0.99
Mansfield Town xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Forest Green and 0.99 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forest Green's recent record stands at 21W 12D 5L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 10L across 38 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for Forest Green against 1.74 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Forest Green have managed 12W 3D 4L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mansfield Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Forest Green are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.39 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 61%.
Defensively: Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 21W 12D 5L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Mansfield Town away?
Forest Green's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 2.05 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Mansfield Town have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 0-4 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forest Green have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Forest Green
1
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Mansfield Town 1-0 Forest Green.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forest Green see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 26%, Mansfield Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Forest Green) and 47% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Forest Green have failed to score in 32% of games; Mansfield Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Forest Green's recent matches and 58% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Forest Green's recent games and 47% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Forest Green edge out Mansfield Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Mansfield Town 1-0 at The Fully Charged New Lawn, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 1.18 xG and Mansfield Town 0.99 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Mansfield Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 39% | Draw 32% | Mansfield Town 29%, with Forest Green to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 34%, Mansfield Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forest Green 1.97 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forest Green win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.