Fleetwood Town 0-0 Newport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fleetwood Town face Newport County.

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Analysis & Preview

Newport County travel to Highbury Stadium to take on Fleetwood Town in League Two (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Fleetwood Town have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Fleetwood Town have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Newport County — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Newport County's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fleetwood Town 1.10 PPG, Newport County 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Fleetwood Town have won 2, Newport County 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Fleetwood Town 2–0 Newport County — a Fleetwood Town win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Fleetwood Town trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Newport County trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 58% versus Newport County 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 50% | Newport County 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.97 xG and Newport County 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 1.174 / defence 1.205 | Newport County attack 0.894 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Newport County's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fleetwood Town's projected output up. Fleetwood Town's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Newport County's projected output up. Data: built from Fleetwood Town's last 78 games and Newport County's last 79.

Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 54% | Draw 22% | Newport County 25%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 1.87 | Draw 4.58 | Newport County 4.06. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fleetwood Town are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fleetwood Town's last 10 home games and Newport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fleetwood Town 90% (last 10 home games) | Newport County 50% (last 10 away games).

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