Northampton 2-0 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Hartlepool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Hartlepool travel to Sixfields Stadium to take on Northampton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hartlepool — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Hartlepool have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hartlepool's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Northampton's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Northampton, 1 for Hartlepool and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Hartlepool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hartlepool in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 40% versus Hartlepool 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 38% | Hartlepool 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.37 xG and Hartlepool 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.009 / defence 0.933 | Hartlepool attack 0.867 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.132. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Northampton games / 37 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 45% | Draw 32% | Hartlepool 23%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Hartlepool 4.35. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hartlepool (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 30% | Hartlepool 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 45% | Draw 32% | Hartlepool 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Northampton 1.37 / Hartlepool 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.009 / def 0.933 | Hartlepool attack 0.867 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Northampton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Hartlepool xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Hartlepool kick off?
Northampton vs Hartlepool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Hartlepool?
Northampton 2 - 0 Hartlepool.
Where is Northampton vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Hartlepool part of?
Northampton vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 45% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Northampton and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Hartlepool?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 0 | Hartlepool 1W.
What form are Northampton and Hartlepool in?
Northampton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Hartlepool (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Northampton's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hartlepool's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Hartlepool's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.16
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.29
0.92
Hartlepool xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
6%
17.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Northampton and 0.92 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Hartlepool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton's recent record stands at 17W 9D 11L from 37 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Hartlepool, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 14L across 37 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.62 PPG, Hartlepool on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 10W 3D 5L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hartlepool's away record stands at 5W 3D 10L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.05 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Hartlepool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 14W 9D 14L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Hartlepool away?
Northampton's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.83 PPG; Hartlepool away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Northampton or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Hartlepool runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Northampton's record when hosting Hartlepool specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Northampton
1
Draws
1
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, Hartlepool have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Hartlepool 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Hartlepool?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 33%, Hartlepool 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Northampton) and 44% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Hartlepool in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Northampton's recent matches and 39% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Northampton's recent games and 44% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Hartlepool 2-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.37 xG and Hartlepool 0.92 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hartlepool landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Hartlepool attack 0.87 / defence 1.33, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 45% | Draw 32% | Hartlepool 23%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 38%, Hartlepool 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hartlepool's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.62 PPG, Hartlepool 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.