Crewe 1-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 40%, yet in-form Salford City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crewe vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Crewe welcome Salford City to Alexandra Stadium in League Two (matchday 42). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Crewe have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Crewe's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Salford City stand at 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Salford City away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Salford City's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Crewe's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Crewe, 3 for Salford City and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Crewe 3–1 Salford City — a Crewe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Salford City in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Salford City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 41% | Salford City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.37 xG and Salford City 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.100 / defence 1.064 | Salford City attack 1.002 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Data: built from Crewe's last 87 games and Salford City's last 87.
Result probabilities: Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.51 | Draw 3.80 | Salford City 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salford City (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crewe 60% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 42 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Crewe 1.37 / Salford City 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.100 / def 1.064 | Salford City attack 1.002 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Crewe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Salford City xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crewe vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Crewe vs Salford City kick off?
Crewe vs Salford City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Salford City?
Crewe 1 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Crewe vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Salford City part of?
Crewe vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 40% chance of winning, Salford City a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crewe and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crewe vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.10x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crewe's last 87 games and Salford City's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.80
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.61
1.24
Salford City xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crewe vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Crewe and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Crewe and 1.24 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 87 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 33W 26D 28L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Salford City's form line: 41W 19D 27L from 87 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.44 PPG, Salford City on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 43 home games (20W 10D 13L).
On the road, Salford City have gone 18W 11D 14L from their last 43 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
Crewe (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crewe
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Crewe vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Crewe and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 33W 26D 28L in their last 87 games (1.44 PPG), while Salford City have gone 41W 19D 27L in their last 87 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Salford City away?
Crewe's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.63 PPG; Salford City away: 1.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Crewe have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2022, when Salford City won Salford City 3-0 Crewe.
Crewe's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crewe
2
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Crewe vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Salford City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Crewe have won 3, Salford City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Crewe 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 49%, Salford City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Crewe) and 46% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crewe vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crewe and Salford City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Crewe's recent matches and 58% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crewe and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Crewe's recent games and 46% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Crewe's recent matches and 65% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Salford City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Salford City 1-0 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.37 xG and Salford City 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 41%, Salford City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Salford City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.44 PPG, Salford City 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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