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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Salford City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Salford City 1-0 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.37 xG and Salford City 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 41%, Salford City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Salford City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.44 PPG, Salford City 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights