Crewe 0-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Crewe welcome Fleetwood Town to Alexandra Stadium in League Two (matchday 33). Kick-off is Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Crewe — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Crewe at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Fleetwood Town have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fleetwood Town away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Crewe have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Crewe's games and 60% of Fleetwood Town's (from Crewe's last 10 home games and Fleetwood Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Crewe, 3 for Fleetwood Town and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Crewe 4–1 Fleetwood Town — a Crewe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Fleetwood Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 38% | Fleetwood Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.49 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.199 / defence 0.979 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.880 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Data: built from Crewe's last 78 games and Fleetwood Town's last 76.
Result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.07 | Draw 3.84 | Fleetwood Town 3.91. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Crewe 80% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 33 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Crewe 1.49 / Fleetwood Town 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.199 / def 0.979 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.880 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Crewe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Fleetwood Town xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crewe vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Crewe vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Crewe vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Crewe 0 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Crewe vs Fleetwood Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 48% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crewe and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Crewe vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crewe's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crewe's last 78 games and Fleetwood Town's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.84
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.50
1.01
Fleetwood Town xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crewe vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Crewe and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Crewe and 1.01 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crewe's recent record stands at 29W 25D 22L from 76 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 25W 23D 28L across 76 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.47 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 18W 10D 10L from their last 38 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 12W 7D 19L across their last 38 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Crewe (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crewe
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Crewe vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Crewe and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 29W 25D 22L in their last 76 games (1.47 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 25W 23D 28L in their last 76 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Crewe's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.68 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2021, when Fleetwood Town won Fleetwood Town 3-0 Crewe.
Crewe's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crewe
0
Draws
4
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Crewe vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Crewe have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Crewe 0-1 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 50%, Fleetwood Town 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Crewe) and 55% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fleetwood Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crewe vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crewe and Fleetwood Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crewe's recent matches and 55% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crewe and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Crewe's recent games and 55% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Crewe's recent matches and 71% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fleetwood Town defy the odds to beat Crewe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Crewe 0-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.49 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 78/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 26%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Fleetwood Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 38%, Fleetwood Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.47 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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