🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Fleetwood Town defy the odds to beat Crewe 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Crewe 0-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.49 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 78/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 26%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Fleetwood Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 38%, Fleetwood Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.47 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights