Crawley Town vs Northampton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Northampton at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at The Broadfield Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Northampton have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Northampton have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 0.60 PPG, Northampton 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 2, Northampton 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Northampton trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 49% versus Northampton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 46% | Northampton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.98 xG and Northampton 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / defence 1.332 | Northampton attack 0.858 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Data: 55 Crawley Town games / 9 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 34% | Northampton 38%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Northampton 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Northampton 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Northampton | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 34% | Northampton 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Crawley Town 0.98 / Northampton 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / def 1.332 | Northampton attack 0.858 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Northampton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Northampton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Northampton kick off?
Crawley Town vs Northampton is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 February 2027 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Northampton part of?
Crawley Town vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Northampton a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crawley Town and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Northampton?
Record (7 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 2 | Northampton 3W.
What form are Crawley Town and Northampton in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Northampton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.82) and Northampton's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
28%
3.53
34%
2.96
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.14
1.17
Northampton xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.17 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 55 games, going 9W 18D 28L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Northampton sit at 0.82 PPG from 55 outings (11W 12D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 0.82 PPG, Northampton on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 5W 11D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Northampton have taken 0.67 points per game from 27 outings (4W 6D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 0.82 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Northampton in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 games (0.82 PPG), while Northampton have gone 11W 12D 32L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Northampton away?
Crawley Town's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 0.96 PPG; Northampton away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Northampton?
From 7 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Northampton 1-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Northampton 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Crawley Town) and 41% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 30% of games; Northampton in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 41% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Crawley Town's recent games and 41% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Northampton tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Northampton in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.