Crawley Town vs Accrington ST – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at The Broadfield Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Accrington ST are 0.70 PPG clear of Crawley Town in recent League Two fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Accrington ST and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 49% versus Accrington ST 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 46% | Accrington ST 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Accrington ST 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / defence 1.332 | Accrington ST attack 0.882 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Data: 55 Crawley Town games / 57 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 35%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Accrington ST 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 40% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.13 / Accrington ST 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / def 1.332 | Accrington ST attack 0.882 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Accrington ST xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 32% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 2 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.82x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.88x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 55/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
32%
3.11
32%
3.08
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
Accrington ST xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.20 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 55 games, going 9W 18D 28L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.20 PPG from 55 outings (17W 15D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.20 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 5W 11D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (5W 8D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.13 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 games (0.82 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Crawley Town's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 0.96 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
From 5 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Accrington ST have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Accrington ST 3-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Accrington ST 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Crawley Town) and 41% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 30% of games; Accrington ST in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 44% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Crawley Town's recent games and 41% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.