Northampton vs Gillingham – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Northampton take on Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Gillingham in League Two, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Northampton have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Northampton have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gillingham (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Gillingham are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Northampton, 0 for Gillingham and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Gillingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 48% versus Gillingham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 44% | Gillingham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.93 xG and Gillingham 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.697 / defence 0.982 | Gillingham attack 0.844 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Northampton's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Northampton games / 50 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 33% | Draw 35% | Gillingham 32%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Gillingham 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Northampton dominate the H2H record, yet Gillingham are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 60% | Gillingham 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 33% | Draw 35% | Gillingham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Northampton 0.93 / Gillingham 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.697 / def 0.982 | Gillingham attack 0.844 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Gillingham xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Gillingham kick off?
Northampton vs Gillingham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Sixfields Stadium.
Where is Northampton vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Gillingham part of?
Northampton vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 33% chance of winning, Gillingham a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Northampton and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Gillingham?
Record (3 meetings): Northampton 2W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Northampton and Gillingham in?
Northampton (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.84x) against Northampton's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
35%
2.84
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.85
0.92
Gillingham xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.5 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Northampton and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Northampton and 0.92 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton come into this having played 50 games, going 9W 11D 30L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Northampton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.12 PPG from 50 outings (13W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Northampton against 1.12 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Northampton's home form reads 6W 6D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (5W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.10 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 9W 11D 30L in their last 50 games (0.76 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Gillingham away?
Northampton's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 0.96 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Northampton
1
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Gillingham?
From 3 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, Gillingham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Gillingham 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Gillingham?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 52%, Gillingham 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Northampton) and 40% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 36% of games; Gillingham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Northampton's recent matches and 44% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Northampton's recent games and 40% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Gillingham tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.