Northampton vs Gillingham – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gillingham at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Gillingham in League Two, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Northampton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Gillingham (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Gillingham are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Northampton, 0 for Gillingham and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Gillingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 46% versus Gillingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 40% | Gillingham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.93 xG and Gillingham 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.625 / defence 0.999 | Gillingham attack 1.219 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Northampton's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gillingham have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Northampton games / 57 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 25% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 41%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Gillingham 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Northampton dominate the H2H record, yet Gillingham are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gillingham at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gillingham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Northampton 50% | Gillingham 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 25% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Northampton 0.93 / Gillingham 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.625 / def 0.999 | Gillingham attack 1.219 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gillingham xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Gillingham kick off?
Northampton vs Gillingham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Sixfields Stadium.
Where is Northampton vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Gillingham part of?
Northampton vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 25% chance of winning, Gillingham a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Northampton and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Gillingham?
Record (3 meetings): Northampton 2W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Northampton and Gillingham in?
Northampton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Gillingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (1.22x) against Northampton's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 9/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
25%
3.93
33%
3.01
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.17
1.24
Gillingham xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.2 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Northampton and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Northampton and 1.24 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 12D 32L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (16W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Northampton against 1.18 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Northampton's home form reads 7W 6D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 11W 12D 32L in their last 55 games (0.82 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Gillingham away?
Gillingham's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.00 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Northampton
1
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Gillingham?
From 3 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, Gillingham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Gillingham 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Gillingham?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 48%, Gillingham 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Northampton) and 52% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 37% of games; Gillingham in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Northampton's recent matches and 44% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Northampton's recent games and 52% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Gillingham tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.