Crawley Town 1-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The People's Pension Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Mansfield Town in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at The People's Pension Stadium: 3W 3D 3L from 9 League Two appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mansfield Town (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 59% versus Mansfield Town 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 53% | Mansfield Town 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.18 xG and Mansfield Town 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.878 / defence 1.331 | Mansfield Town attack 0.658 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.199. Mansfield Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Crawley Town games / 18 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 35% | Mansfield Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Mansfield Town 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 78% | Mansfield Town 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 35% | Mansfield Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Crawley Town 1.18 / Mansfield Town 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.878 / def 1.331 | Mansfield Town attack 0.658 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Mansfield Town xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Crawley Town 1 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 36% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crawley Town and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.66x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
36%
2.79
35%
2.89
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.23
1.05
Mansfield Town xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.05 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 3D 8L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.00 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crawley Town's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.00 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Mansfield Town away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.12 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 4-1 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
0
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 75%, Mansfield Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Crawley Town) and 38% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Crawley Town's games and 50% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Crawley Town's recent games and 38% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Crawley Town 1-2 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.18 xG and Mansfield Town 1.05 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against Mansfield Town attack 0.66 / defence 1.25, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 35% | Mansfield Town 30%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 53%, Mansfield Town 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.24 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.