Colchester 1-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Newport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colchester vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
JobServe Community Stadium plays host to Colchester versus Newport County in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Colchester have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colchester have posted 3W 2D 4L at JobServe Community Stadium — 1.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Newport County (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Newport County are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Colchester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Newport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 47% versus Newport County 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 35% | Newport County 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.17 xG and Newport County 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.890 / defence 1.160 | Newport County attack 0.972 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.201. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Colchester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Colchester games / 18 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 30% | Draw 32% | Newport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Newport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newport County as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colchester 56% | Newport County 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 30% | Draw 32% | Newport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Colchester 1.17 / Newport County 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.890 / def 1.160 | Newport County attack 0.972 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Newport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Newport County xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Newport County kick off?
Colchester vs Newport County kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 November 2021 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Newport County?
Colchester 1 - 1 Newport County.
Where is Colchester vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Newport County part of?
Colchester vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 30% chance of winning, Newport County a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Colchester and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Newport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colchester and Newport County in?
Colchester (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Newport County (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Colchester's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Newport County's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Newport County's attack (0.97x) against Colchester's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
30%
3.38
32%
3.14
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.52
1.35
Newport County xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Colchester and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Colchester and 1.35 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colchester come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 5D 7L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Newport County sit at 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Colchester against 1.41 for Newport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Colchester's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Newport County have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Colchester are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.65 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newport County in 65%.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Newport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Newport County in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Newport County have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Newport County away?
Newport County's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.22 PPG; Newport County away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Colchester go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colchester won 4-1 on 20 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colchester have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Newport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Colchester
3
Draws
2
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Newport County?
From 10 meetings on record, Colchester have won 5, Newport County have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Newport County 1-2 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Newport County?
Colchester have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Colchester, 78% for Newport County — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Colchester) and 78% (Newport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Newport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Colchester's games and 78% of Newport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colchester vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Colchester's matches and 78% of Newport County's.
Do Colchester and Newport County tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Newport County in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colchester and Newport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester and Newport County finished level at 1-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.17 xG and Newport County 1.35 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Newport County attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 30% | Draw 32% | Newport County 39%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 35%, Newport County 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Newport County's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.18 PPG, Newport County 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.